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ANALYSIS: NDP & Liberal obsession with elitist, woke politics creating space for O’Toole with unionized workers

U of C professor Barry Cooper says that woke, elitist politics has disillusioned some traditional Liberal and NDP voters, allowing Conservatives to pick up the slack while their right flank drifts to the PPC and Maverick Party.

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Erin O’ Toole’s bump in leadership approval and the Conservatives’ unexpected – although small – lead may be owing to an elitist, authoritarian approach adopted by Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, according to University of Calgary professor Barry Cooper.

A Nanos poll released August 28 found that voter preference for O’Toole as prime minister grew from 24% on August 23 to 27.2% on August 28, while Justin Trudeau’s fell from 32.7% to 29.9%. Jagmeet Singh’s rose from 19.4% to 20.1%.

In an interview with the Western Standard, Cooper suggested that O’Toole’s stance against mandatory vaccinations helped his leadership ratings and Conservative support.

“It probably is partly a reflection of the statement, particularly by Trudeau, you’re not going to be able to get on a plane unless you can show that you’ve been vaccinated. That indicates to me this barely submerged authoritarian streak that seems to be endemic with all of these Trudeau people. And I think a lot of people just said, ‘Wait a minute. That’s several bridges too far,’” Cooper said.

“I’ve seen some of those pictures of him out in Surrey and people were saying very rude things to him…There is a more general disillusion because he’s been missing in action on things like Afghanistan… [And Liberal MP Maryam Monself] who was born in Iran to Afghani parents talking about ‘our brothers (in) the Taliban,’ then trying to walk it back. That’s not such a rhetorically perfect way of talking about what’s going on there.”

Even the CBC admits the Conservatives’ 33.5% popular support outpaces the Liberals’ 31.4%, although the government broadcaster still gives the Liberals a 57% chance of winning the election. Cooper sees no chance for a Trudeau majority with these numbers.

“I don’t see where his strategy has actually shown that it has a possibility of success. It seems to me that almost every place he goes, he runs into opposition, and the opposition is fairly committed. So, who’s going to vote for Trudeau with enthusiasm?” Cooper said.

The NDP has had a slight bump in its support, now at 20.5%, but Cooper believes the party has embraced identity politics to the neglect of unionized workers.

“Mr. Singh [said] he was better able to understand First Nations because, unlike rich Justin, he may have been rich, but he was also an individual with color. Well, now give me a break. What, do you think with the color of your skin or something? This is getting so far out there that the traditional NDP supporter would probably wonder what have they done by electing this guy as their leader.”

Unlike Trudeau and Singh, O’Toole is onside with Chris Aylward, president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada, that a negative COVID-19 test should be enough for federal employees to come to work. Cooper said, “Not in my living memory” could he recall when the NDP opposed the rights of unionized employees.

“[Singh] or his people who advise him probably think that this has been a very principled stand,” Cooper said.

“If they’ve been listening to the orthodox statements of public health officials that reflects a very, very narrow range of opinion by informed people…That doesn’t make [such opinions] uncontested. It just means that somebody who’s in power is saying these things.”

Meanwhile, O’Toole’s platform calls for companies to prioritize worker pensions during corporate restructuring or bankruptcies and for large corporations to have mandatory worker representation on their boards. Cooper says O’Toole may hold these labour-friendly ideas sincerely and not as “a cynical move for a wedge issue.”

If anything, Conservative voters are a bit cynical about O’Toole. Cooper finds less enthusiasm among small c-conservatives who will vote for the Durham, Ontario MP than those who won’t.

“A lot of people think that Max Bernier [and the PPC] is worth voting for, and others think that the Maverick Party is worth voting for….Enthusiasm for voting Conservative is under very strict control, and less so, I think than these alternatives. And they may be just protest votes, but the enthusiasm is there.”

Lee Harding is a Saskatchewan-based correspondent for Western Standard.

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NDP support holding strong across Alberta

That’s enough of a lead to form a majority government, say pollsters.

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The UCP would be gutted and Rachel Notley back as premier if an election were held today, an exclusive new poll done for the Western Standard shows.

The Mainstreet Research poll shows Notley’s NDP currently has the support of 41% of Albertans with Jason Kenney’s UCP well back at 25%

That’s enough of a lead to form a majority government, say pollsters.

Courtesy Mainstreet Research

The upstart Wildrose Independence Party collect 11% support in the new poll, with 5% siding with the Alberta Party, with the Liberals and Greens at 1% each. A total of 14% of voters were undecided.

Wildrose leader Paul Hinman polls best among people who are refusing to get vaccinated. When they were asked, 34% chose Wildrose, 29% for the UCP and only 2% for the NDP.

If the undecided are removed from the poll, the NDP checks in with 45%, the UCP with 29%, the WIP with 13% and the AP with 6%

In that poll, the NDP is also leading in Alberta’s two major cities. In Edmonton, the NDP has 62% support with the UCP at 21% In Calgary, the NDP leads with 48% support and the UCP at 31%.

Rural areas seem split. Northern rural areas favour Kenney 34% to 29% for Notley. Southern rural areas like Notley at 32% with Kenney at 29%.

Courtesy Mainstreet Research

“Things are looking pretty grim for Kenney,” said Mainstreet CEO and President Quito Maggi.

“It’s 18 months until the next election, and that can be an eternity, but numbers in this realm for the better part of a year, with no positive movement, shows the trouble he is in.”

Maggi said he was a little surprised by the lead of Notley in Calgary, normally a Conservative bastion.

“It speaks of the personal unpopularity of Jason Kenney himself. The policies of the NDP probably aren’t supported in Calgary but they are willing to vote for the candidate that will defeat Kenney,” he said.

Maggi noted Kenney is now getting it from both sides of the political spectrum and the WIP is taking enough to leave Notley with a majority victory. He predicted an NDP victory would only be by one or two seats.

The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on October 12-13 2021 among a sample of 935 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Alberta. 

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Mar- gins of error are higher in each subsample. 

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. 

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People not getting COVID jabs a diverse group

Deonandan predicted Canada will not achieve “herd immunity” against COVID-19 until at least 91% of eligible citizens are fully vaccinated. The rate is currently 81%, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.

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Canadians against getting a COVID-19 jab are not just a group of crazed, anti-vaxxers, says a leading epidemiologist.

Four million Canadians who’ve declined a COVID-19 are an assorted lot, said the executive editor of the Interdisciplinary Journal Of Health Sciences .

“The unvaccinated are a diverse group,” Dr. Raywat Deonandan, of the University of Ottawa, told Blacklock’s Reporter.

“They include the hardcore anti-vaxxers. They include the vaccine-hesitant who are just afraid of the vaccine.”

“They include those who want to get vaccinated, but can’t get time off work or get child care. And they include the apathetic. The apathetic tend to be the young people who think the disease is not serious to them. Vaccine passports really do well on that group.”

Speaking during a webinar with a federal union, the Professional Association of Foreign Service Officers, Deonandan said he generally supported domestic vaccine passports, likening them to a driver’s licence, but strongly opposed mandatory immunization of young children.

“Vaccine mandates are controversial,” said Deonandan, adding compulsory shots for children under 12 “just creates far too much distrust in the population and doesn’t rub people the right way.

“I have a small child. I’m not happy about injecting him with strange things. I will if his mother agrees. But it does not fill me with comfort to do so. I get it.”

Deonandan said he thought compulsory vaccination for federal employees was legally defensible, but acknowledged it would draw protest.

“The weakness is our democracy,” he said.

“Our biggest value is our freedom and our democracy. That is the thing that’s our Achilles’ heel here. Authoritarian governments do better with COVID because they control the messaging and compel behaviour. We don’t want to be that. So we need to empower the citizens to think more rationally to their own ends.”

Deonandan predicted Canada will not achieve “herd immunity” against COVID-19 until at least 91% of eligible citizens are fully vaccinated. The rate is currently 81%, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.

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Freeland says Canada has to stop cutting business taxes

The Liberal Party has proposed $4.2 billion a year in new taxes mainly on corporations.

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Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada has to put a stop to cuts to corporate taxes, calling it a “race to the bottom.”

Blacklock’s Reporter noted the Liberal Party proposed $4.2 billion a year in new taxes, mainly on corporations.

“Part of building an equitable recovery is strengthening international tax fairness, ending the global race to the bottom in corporate tax and ensuring that all corporations, including the world’s largest, pay their fair share,” said Freeland.

“We will stem the world tendency to reduce the corporate tax rate.”

The Party’s August 25 campaign document, Asking Financial Institutions To Help Canada Build Back Better, proposed an increase in the corporate tax rate from 15 to 18% on banks and insurers with revenues more than a billion dollars a year.

It also proposed an unspecified Canada Recovery Dividend to be “paid by these same large banks and insurance companies in recognition of the fast-paced return to profitability these institutions have experienced in large part due to the unprecedented backstop Canadians provided to our economy through emergency support to people and businesses.

“The allocation of this dividend between applicable institutions will be developed in consultation over the coming months with the Superintendent of Financial Institutions,” continued the document.

It would be “applied over a four year period.”

Cabinet estimated all new taxes, including a new charge on tobacco manufacturers and tighter collections on offshore accounts, would generate $4,241,000,000 next year and nearly twice as much, more than $8.2 billion, by 2025.

The figures were calculated by the Parliamentary Budget Office.

“Big banks got a windfall,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters August 25.

“So as we rebuild we’re going to ask big financial institutions to pay a little back, to pay a little more, so that we can do more for you.

“Big banks and insurance companies have been doing very well over these past many months. Canada’s biggest banks are posting their latest massive profits of billions of dollars.

“Everyone else had to tighten their belt. We’re going to ask them to do a little bit more.”

New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh said September 21 he expected cabinet to raise corporate taxes with support from his caucus.

“People are worried about who’s going to pay the price for the pandemic,” said Singh.

“We don’t believe it should be small business,” said Singh. “We remain resolute that it should be the ultra-rich.”

The New Democrat platform proposed a general increase in the income tax rate on all large corporations from 15% to 18%, not just banks and insurers, and a hike in the top federal income tax rate from 33% to 35% for individuals earning more than $216,500 a year.

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