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EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows UCP collapse as NDP & Wildrose surge

The Mainstreet poll puts UCP support lower than Jim Prentice’s PCs in 2015.

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A new poll commissioned exclusively by the Western Standard shows Jason Kenney’s UCP would face decimation if an election was held today with the NDP’s Rachel Notley returned as premier, and a strong possibility of the new Wildrose Independence Party breaking into the legislature.

The Mainstreet Research poll was conducted January 6-7 and shows 41 per cent of Albertans would vote NDP, and only 26 per cent would cast a ballot for the UCP. The Wildrose Independence Party would take 9 per cent of the vote.

The Alberta Party was supported by 3 per cent, the Liberals and Greens 2 per cent each, and another 2 per cent for other parties. Another 16 per cent were undecided.

Alberta voter intention poll with undecideds. Western Standard New Media Corp. all rights reserved.

“This is horrific news for the governing UCP and for Premier Jason Kenney,” said Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi. “It’s absolutely terrible.”

At 26 per cent, the UCP are polling lower than the 28 per cent received by the Progressive Conservatives under Jim Prentice in 2015.

Maggi noted it was a whopping 28 point drop in popularity for the UCP, leaving them 17 per cent behind Notley’s NDP.

He said the NDP have an unprecedented 50 point lead in Edmonton and 15 per cent lead in the former Tory fortress of Calgary. The UCP has also dropped 30 points in rural Alberta.

And the NDP currently leads in support among men, something Maggi said was unheard of before.

“Right now we are looking at a sweep similar to the 2015 election which brought the NDP to power,” Maggi said, predicting Notley’s party would likely regain seats in Lethbridge on their way to a majority government.

The drop in rural support opens the door for the Wildrose Independence Party, currently polling at nine per cent. Maggi said the WIP could start to win seats right now with its concentrated support in rural areas.

He said WIP would likely see its support continue to climb if it gets a high profile leader.

While Wildrose polled a distant third in Calgary and Edmonton, its strength was clearly in rural Alberta at 13 per cent support.

The new party was constituted from a merger of the Freedom Conservative party and Wexit Alberta last year, opting to reclaim the Wildrose mantle, which Maggi says is still a “very, very strong brand” in the province, and has already endured its near extinction after mass floor crossings in December 2014.

Based on how respondents voted in the 2019 election, the party appears to have consolidated support from the former FCP and smaller right-leaning parties and pulled significant support from both the UCP and Alberta Party.

“There is a residual dislike for Notley in the province, and when you have an unpopular leader versus an unpopular leader, people will look to a third party,” Maggi said.

Despite its attempts, the Alberta Party appears to have dropped back into the range of the largely moribund Liberal Party at 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.

According to Maggi, the Alberta Party is in trouble because they don’t have a leader in place, nor a professional team behind them. Maggi added the centrist vote is largely parked between the NDP and UCP.

“For another centrist party to enter the space, and take away oxygen, is almost impossible,” he said.

But Maggi said it’s way too early to count the UCP out with the next election not scheduled to occur until 2023.

“There is a way out. A week is an eternity in politics – two years is forever,” he said, adding the NDP was hardly on the map before the 2015 election while the Tories were widely expected to sweep.

Removing the undecided vote, the NDP would get 48 per cent, the UCP 31 per cent, Wildrose gets 10 per cent, Alberta Party four per cent, Liberals three per cent, Green two percent and others two per cent.

The poll of 1,003 adults has a margin of error of +/- 3.09 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence level.

This poll is Part One of a series of Mainstreet polls commissioned by the Western Standard. The full details and methodology of the poll can be found here.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard and the Vice-President: News Division of Western Standard New Media Corp. He has served as the City Editor of the Calgary Sun and has covered Alberta news for nearly 40 years. dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Joe_Calgary

    January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    Kenny brought the Ottawa “conservative” approach which was to be liberal lite. He wound up looking no different from the liberals or the ND’s, exactly the mistake Prentice and Redford made. Wildrose is the only party that will fight for Albertans and represent their values of independence.

  2. Warren Leigh

    January 9, 2021 at 11:22 am

    One big and obvious way for Kenney to regain his support would be to END THE LOCKDOWNS!! Let’s get everybody vaccinated who needs it, start purchasing a good supply of therapeutic medicines, all while getting Alberta back up and running and open for business, education, worship and everything else. He should also fire Hinshaw and at least suspend if not fire the snowbirds. Let’s put this pandemic crap behind us, stick it to commie Ottawa, and get some pipelines built and mining operations in place! Remember the good old days when that used to be the big topic of discussion? It’s way past time, though, to move beyond talk to action.

  3. UnLiberal

    January 9, 2021 at 9:04 am

    I no longer have confidence in any political party! If I were to vote, it would be cast for the party that I distrusted the least!

  4. Joan

    January 8, 2021 at 11:01 pm

    NEVER, as long as I draw breath, will I ever vote for NDP…they almost destroyed this province, and they spend money like water. (I lived under their dictatorship and disaster, too long, in BC as well. )We have enough debt from them before, we don’t need to take them on again and totally destroy whats left. Plus they HATE oil and thats a lot of what we are. I would consider Wildrose Independent Party, but we aren’t in a position to separate at this point. Not much choice left, is there. Fortunately we aren’t coming up to an election, so what the polls say today, hopefully won’t happen. I wish the old Wildrose party was still around because they would definitely get my support. All I can do is hope for a miracle and something happens (maybe some people will learn some things and change) to change things…

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:18 am

      Maybe the next generation will be more clear eyed. Hope there’s something left for them after this guy gives everything away.

  5. GonadTheRuffian

    January 8, 2021 at 7:39 pm

    If this poll is correct and you add up the percentage of the decided votes; 48% are for Left Wing parties and 35 % are for the two conservative parties. If this is truly the case in Alberta; the most conservative province in Canada; forget about Separation. Plan for Shariah Law, poverty, and violence; the result of our young peoples indoctrination in the Public Propaganda Mills; and the importation of millions of foreigners looking for free stuff.
    But later; as you huddle in some crowded human warehouse or under a bridge somewhere; keep chanting the Leftist /Globalist mantra “Diversity is our strength”. If you vote for it, you will get it!

  6. H Jenson

    January 8, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    The sample size for this poll was a little to small to be accurate. What is clear though is Kenney will be sent back to Ontario where he belongs.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:17 am

      Main Street not so good at getting it right. Look at its history. This looks right though.

      • Joe_Calgary

        January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

        Clara McNee or should we call you Clare Troll? How much do you get paid for sowing manure on these sites?

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:46 pm

        Clara . . . the NDP has a history of not getting anything right !
        They are a party of inbred socialists . . . left overs from the 20th Century.
        One thing about ALL Socialists . . . they know the way to Venezuela.

        Look around the world Clara . . . ALL the leftist countries are FAILING . . .

        Did you miss the obvious when Trump built the Best US Economy in 50 years and the Lowest Minority Unempoyment EVER . . . and he did it in less than 3 years . . . before the ChiCommies released the Obama/Fauci/CCP Wuhan Virus on the world.

        How did he do it? Cutting Regulations, Business & Personal Taxes, creating 1/2 Million New Manufacturing Jobs . . . and putting Tariffs on the thieving CCP who have been stealing Intellectual Property, Patents & Technology for decades.

  7. warrenzoell

    January 8, 2021 at 6:54 pm

    I don’t know which ones are bigger morons. Those who continue to support the UCP. Or the ones who decide to go back to supporting the NDP. What the hell is wrong with you? Is your memory that short?
    There are better choices you know.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:15 am

      And WildRose is different than UCP how? NDP only party that ever did anything for ‘all’ Albertans not just the Con base. Maybe the next generation will realize.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 8:17 am

        Are you kidding?

        Please name one piece of legislation or policy implemented by the Notley NDP that benefited more than just her cronies.

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 10:54 am

        She did one good thing for AISH recipients. She gave them a $100 a month increase. Plus payments were to match AISH payments to the rate of inflation. As the rate of inflation increases or decreases, AISH payments were to be matched accordingly on a yearly basis.
        Kenney of course shut this down as soon as the UCP came into power. Now AISH recipients receive pretty much what they were getting in 2012 when Redford gave a much needed $400 a month increase. Of course that was 9 years ago.

        But as for the rest as to what the NDP did was a complete disaster. Especially that fraudulent carbon tax based on a very very big lie.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 3:20 pm

        Only to take it back by increasing the cost of living when she forced the carbon tax on everything, incl. milk, bread, fruit & vegetables, rent, transportation, etc…..

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 6:12 pm

        Actually it was Kenney who shut the AISH thing down. but I see your point.
        I do suspect that even she did this for AISH recipients, she knew she was going to loose, and that Kenney would get rid of it.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 12:37 pm

        You are a typical Soviet Canuck; addicted to “free stuff” and comforting lies. Where is your “free stuff” gonna come from when Knothead continues to shut down oil pipelines and other sources of income? Let me answer that question. She will borrow money like there is no tomorrow, just like the Leftist tyrant Turdeau is doing until the province (and nation) is bankrupt. “Free stuff” for everyone; especially if you are a foreigner (and especially, especially, if your name is Mohammad)!
        The next generation is gonna realize alright, when they find themselves living as the hungry, cold, Third-World peasants of Soviet Canuckistan. A hated, poverty stricken minority in their own country.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:30 pm

        NDP never did anything for anybody . . . they are the party of University Professors and Big Enviro . . . a record of disaster wherever they lead.

        Alberta had a taste for 4 years . . . and went downhill . . .
        The NDP have destroyed BC twice . . . and are now doing it again.
        NDP kept Saskatchewan depressed for 70 years . . . they wrecked Manitoba in the 70s & 80s . . . and of course ran Rae Days in Ontario . . . another low point.

        Albertans missed the Boat when they failed to Elect Wild Rose years ago . . . and got Nutley.

        Read the NDP Constitution on line . . . it reads like Karl Marx !

  8. Victoria Demolition

    January 8, 2021 at 6:38 pm

    I wonder if the NDP will introduce the recall legislation? I guess time will tell.

  9. godot

    January 8, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    One thing is certain, Kenney will not be enacting Recall Legislation!

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:16 am

      Alberta will be lucky if there is anything they recognize after Kenney is through. Remember Harper saying Canadians would not recognize Canada when he was through? Luckily there were enough Canadians with the intellect to send him packing.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 4:00 pm

        You have the audacity to criticize Harper when the present PM, Mr. Mohammad Castro, AKA, The Village Idiot is borrowing and squandering money like the virtue-signaling, Left-Wing, snow board instructor he is. Most of this money goes to corrupt foreign nations and his beloved Islamic Death Cult. Much of this money is stolen from Alberta through the draconian transfer payments. At the same time him and his Librano Gang shut down Alberta pipelines and ban tankers on the west coast. When you Looney Leftists are done with Canada it will be an Islamic hell-hole that will be truly unrecognizable.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:34 pm

        Harper was the best PM in 50 years . . . and the FACTS support that !
        But the Eastern Elites, the FakeStream Media hated him as well as the feckless UNIFOR.

        Now we have our Village Idiot from Keybec running the country off a cliff . . . doubling the debt in 5 years . . . a 3 time Ethics challenged criminal . . .

        Remember when . . . .
        World’s Richest Middle Class . . . NY Times
        World’s Best Reputation . . . Reputation Institute
        Best Wage Growth in G7 Nations . . . 2007-2012
        Best Oilfield Salaries in the World . . .
        Best Oilfield Enviro Regs in the World . . . Harvard Bus School
        Best Country to do Business . . . . Forbes
        World’s Best Debt to GDP Ratio , . . OECD

        ALL of that is in the REAR VIEW Mirror today Canada . . .

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News

UCP MLAs: ‘Let unvaxxed post-secondary students get back to class’

“With no evidence to show that it has made their campuses any safer, colleges and universities are denying unvaccinated Albertans the opportunity to receive a higher education,” said the letter.

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A letter questioning Alberta post-secondary institutions on policy banning unvaccinated students’ from campuses while unvaxxed healthcare workers are now permitted to rapid test has been sent to campuses across Alberta by two UCP MLAs.

MLA for Cardston-Siksika and Deputy Government House Leader Joseph Schow and Peace River MLA Dan Williams signed the letter dated Thursday addressed to eight post-secondary presidents including the universities of Lethbridge, Alberta, Calgary, Mount Royal, MacEwan, SAIT and NAIT and Bow Valley College.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, along with the Minister of Advanced Education Demetrios Nicolaides and the Minister of Health Jason Copping were each cc’d in the letter.

The letter outlines the change to COVID-19 measures adopted by many Alberta post-secondary institutions in September requiring all students and staff to be fully vaccinated to attend in-person and online learning.

Letter from UCP MLAs to Alberta post-secondary institutions – pg 1

“Although these post-secondary institutions have based their protocols on direction from the Government of Alberta, they have chosen to exclude the option of providing a negative PCR or rapid test,” said the letter.

“There is little to no evidence showing that universities and colleges benefit from limiting in-person learning to those who are vaccinated.”

The letter claims institutions have failed to demonstrate how students on campuses banning the unvaccinated are any safer from COVID-19 than students on campuses allowing for rapid testing instead of proof of vaccination.

“With no evidence to show that it has made their campuses any safer, colleges and universities are denying unvaccinated Albertans the opportunity to receive a higher education,” said the letter.

“Many students opportunities vanish for making a personal health choice.”

Letter from UCP MLAs to Alberta post-secondary institutions – pg 2

The letter references Albert Health Services’ recent update to its mandatory vaccination policy in December allowing unvaccinated healthcare workers the option to rapid test and return to work.

“With that in mind, we have a simple question,” said the letter.

“What makes so many university campuses in Alberta more risk-averse than a hospital or other healthcare facility?

“If Alberta healthcare workers, who are likely exposed to COVID-19 daily are permitted to rapid test, why are post-secondary students being denied the same opportunity? These students are being held to a higher standard, a standard that will unfairly deprive many young Albertans of their future.”

The letter describes Alberta’s position to “lead the country in economic growth” moving forward and suggests a “highly skilled and educated workforce” will be needed.

Both Schow and Williams request all Alberta post-secondary institutions remove their “backward-thinking COVID-19 vaccine mandates” and “allow all students the option to rapid test so they can return to school, complete their education and help build a strong Alberta.”

The Western Standard did not hear back from either MLA for comment before publishing.

Although the Alberta government has not made vaccinations mandatory for any post-secondary institutions, many have adopted the policy on their own resulting in thousands of unvaccinated students not being permitted to access in-person or remote learning.

The University of Alberta, University of Calgary and University of Lethbridge earlier this month extended online learning until after the February reading break.

Melanie Risdon is a reporter with the Western Standard
mrisdon@westernstandardonline.com

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News

Trucker freedom convoy GoFundMe raises over $1M

“It’s our duty as Canadians to put an end to this mandates. It is imperative that this happens because if we don’t our country will no longer be the country we have come to love.”

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Canadians are responding enmasse to help the country’s truckers.

A GoFundMe to help the truckers surpassed the $1 million mark on Friday afternoon, after only being established six days ago.

Money donated is to be dispersed among truckers to aid with journey costs.

Truckers and supporters alike have gathered in a cross-country convoy drive in protest of mandatory vaccinations for their industry.

Donations go towards the cost of fuel, then food and lodgings along the journey.

Our current government is implementing rules and mandates that are destroying the foundation of our businesses, industries and livelihoods,” the donation page says.

“It’s our duty as Canadians to put an end to this mandates. It is imperative that this happens because if we don’t our country will no longer be the country we have come to love. We are doing this for our future Generations and to regain our lives back.”

Truckers Freedom Convoy 2022 has 3 main routes departing from Vancouver, BC, Sarnia, ON, and Enfield, NS, all meeting in Ottawa on January 29, 2022.

Smaller chains will drive to meet with the main convoy from more rural locations across Canada.

You can find all the routes of the convoy here.

“We are a peaceful country that has helped protect nations across the globe from Tyrannical governments who oppressed their people, well now its happening to us. We are taking our fight to the doorsteps of our Federal Government and demanding that they cease all mandates against its people. Small businesses are being destroyed, homes are being destroyed, and people are being mistreated and denied fundamental necessities to survive,” the group says.

The GoFundMe page has a goal of $1,100,000.

“But it’s a small price to pay for our freedoms. We thank you all for your Donations and know that you are helping reshape this once beautiful country back to the way it was,” says the page.

Truckers were previously deemed “essential,” however the federal government green-lit the loss of 12,000-16,000 (10-15%) of cross-border commercial drivers by making vaccinations mandatory, as anticipated by the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA).

“This number may not sound like a lot in the grand scheme of things, but in cross-border areas such as Vancouver or Windsor, there’s a lot of drivers who will cross the border five or six times a day. That’s a lot of loads in a year that no longer have a way of coming up,” Colin Valentim told the Western Standard.

Ewa Sudyk is a reporter with the Western Standard
esudyk@westernstandardonline.com

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Energy

IEA recognizes Canadian oil industry as the environmental world leader

In 2018, oil and gas companies also invested $3.6 billion in environmental protection initiatives, recognized by the IEA as by far the largest environmental protection spend of any industry in the country.  

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Canada is doing great but should take measures to continue its reputation as a preferred oil and gas supplier on the global market, says the International Energy Agency.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol is a big advocate for net zero targets, but still recognizes the reliance on oil and gas that will persist into the future.

He said he prefers oil supply to come from “good partners” like Canada, he told a press conference.

“Canada has been a cornerstone of global energy markets, a reliable partner for years,” said Birol.

“We will still need oil and gas for years to come… I prefer oil is produced by countries … like Canada (that) want to reduce the emissions of oil and gas.” 

The same IEA report included recommendations for Canada to incentivise moves away from oil production, yet the director still recognizes Canada’s contribution to the global market.

World oil consumption returned to pre-pandemic levels and natural gas demand surpassed levels pre-COVID-19 last year, according to IEA data.

Yet Canada only supplies 6% of the current world market.

Consumption of both oil and gas is expected to continue rising even as more renewable energy sources come online. 

A Russian-caused natural gas crisis in Europe has many looking to Canada as a great alternative.

“The world needs reliable partners,” said Birol, of the European situation.  

Canada is the fourth-largest producer of oil and natural gas in the world and home to the third-largest oil reserves.

“This creates employment for Canadians and secure and reliable oil and gas for both domestic and global markets,” the IEA said.  

The IEA recommends that remaining competitive in global oil and gas markets requires further emission reductions, to ensure the sector remains a major driver of the Canadian economy beyond 2050.

Emission reduction has already been steadily implemented in Canada, analysts praised the oil and gas industry’s “strong track record” of reducing emissions intensity.

The oilsands by have decreased emissions by 32% since 1990 and further reductions of up to 27% are expected by 2030. 

Canadian oil and gas companies spend an average of $1 billion per year on clean energy technology, in addition to billions in environmental protection.  

In 2018, oil and gas companies also invested $3.6 billion in environmental protection initiatives, recognized by the IEA as the largest environmental protection spend of any industry in the country.  

“Canadian oil and natural gas producers are leveraging their improving environmental, social and governance performance and Canada’s stringent environmental regulations to build a global competitive advantage.”

Ewa Sudyk is a reporter with the Western Standard
esudyk@westernstandardonline.com

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