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EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows UCP collapse as NDP & Wildrose surge

The Mainstreet poll puts UCP support lower than Jim Prentice’s PCs in 2015.

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A new poll commissioned exclusively by the Western Standard shows Jason Kenney’s UCP would face decimation if an election was held today with the NDP’s Rachel Notley returned as premier, and a strong possibility of the new Wildrose Independence Party breaking into the legislature.

The Mainstreet Research poll was conducted January 6-7 and shows 41 per cent of Albertans would vote NDP, and only 26 per cent would cast a ballot for the UCP. The Wildrose Independence Party would take 9 per cent of the vote.

The Alberta Party was supported by 3 per cent, the Liberals and Greens 2 per cent each, and another 2 per cent for other parties. Another 16 per cent were undecided.

Alberta voter intention poll with undecideds. Western Standard New Media Corp. all rights reserved.

“This is horrific news for the governing UCP and for Premier Jason Kenney,” said Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi. “It’s absolutely terrible.”

At 26 per cent, the UCP are polling lower than the 28 per cent received by the Progressive Conservatives under Jim Prentice in 2015.

Maggi noted it was a whopping 28 point drop in popularity for the UCP, leaving them 17 per cent behind Notley’s NDP.

He said the NDP have an unprecedented 50 point lead in Edmonton and 15 per cent lead in the former Tory fortress of Calgary. The UCP has also dropped 30 points in rural Alberta.

And the NDP currently leads in support among men, something Maggi said was unheard of before.

“Right now we are looking at a sweep similar to the 2015 election which brought the NDP to power,” Maggi said, predicting Notley’s party would likely regain seats in Lethbridge on their way to a majority government.

The drop in rural support opens the door for the Wildrose Independence Party, currently polling at nine per cent. Maggi said the WIP could start to win seats right now with its concentrated support in rural areas.

He said WIP would likely see its support continue to climb if it gets a high profile leader.

While Wildrose polled a distant third in Calgary and Edmonton, its strength was clearly in rural Alberta at 13 per cent support.

The new party was constituted from a merger of the Freedom Conservative party and Wexit Alberta last year, opting to reclaim the Wildrose mantle, which Maggi says is still a “very, very strong brand” in the province, and has already endured its near extinction after mass floor crossings in December 2014.

Based on how respondents voted in the 2019 election, the party appears to have consolidated support from the former FCP and smaller right-leaning parties and pulled significant support from both the UCP and Alberta Party.

“There is a residual dislike for Notley in the province, and when you have an unpopular leader versus an unpopular leader, people will look to a third party,” Maggi said.

Despite its attempts, the Alberta Party appears to have dropped back into the range of the largely moribund Liberal Party at 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.

According to Maggi, the Alberta Party is in trouble because they don’t have a leader in place, nor a professional team behind them. Maggi added the centrist vote is largely parked between the NDP and UCP.

“For another centrist party to enter the space, and take away oxygen, is almost impossible,” he said.

But Maggi said it’s way too early to count the UCP out with the next election not scheduled to occur until 2023.

“There is a way out. A week is an eternity in politics – two years is forever,” he said, adding the NDP was hardly on the map before the 2015 election while the Tories were widely expected to sweep.

Removing the undecided vote, the NDP would get 48 per cent, the UCP 31 per cent, Wildrose gets 10 per cent, Alberta Party four per cent, Liberals three per cent, Green two percent and others two per cent.

The poll of 1,003 adults has a margin of error of +/- 3.09 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence level.

This poll is Part One of a series of Mainstreet polls commissioned by the Western Standard. The full details and methodology of the poll can be found here.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard and the Vice-President: News Division of Western Standard New Media Corp. He has served as the City Editor of the Calgary Sun and has covered Alberta news for nearly 40 years. dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Joe_Calgary

    January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    Kenny brought the Ottawa “conservative” approach which was to be liberal lite. He wound up looking no different from the liberals or the ND’s, exactly the mistake Prentice and Redford made. Wildrose is the only party that will fight for Albertans and represent their values of independence.

  2. Warren Leigh

    January 9, 2021 at 11:22 am

    One big and obvious way for Kenney to regain his support would be to END THE LOCKDOWNS!! Let’s get everybody vaccinated who needs it, start purchasing a good supply of therapeutic medicines, all while getting Alberta back up and running and open for business, education, worship and everything else. He should also fire Hinshaw and at least suspend if not fire the snowbirds. Let’s put this pandemic crap behind us, stick it to commie Ottawa, and get some pipelines built and mining operations in place! Remember the good old days when that used to be the big topic of discussion? It’s way past time, though, to move beyond talk to action.

  3. UnLiberal

    January 9, 2021 at 9:04 am

    I no longer have confidence in any political party! If I were to vote, it would be cast for the party that I distrusted the least!

  4. Joan

    January 8, 2021 at 11:01 pm

    NEVER, as long as I draw breath, will I ever vote for NDP…they almost destroyed this province, and they spend money like water. (I lived under their dictatorship and disaster, too long, in BC as well. )We have enough debt from them before, we don’t need to take them on again and totally destroy whats left. Plus they HATE oil and thats a lot of what we are. I would consider Wildrose Independent Party, but we aren’t in a position to separate at this point. Not much choice left, is there. Fortunately we aren’t coming up to an election, so what the polls say today, hopefully won’t happen. I wish the old Wildrose party was still around because they would definitely get my support. All I can do is hope for a miracle and something happens (maybe some people will learn some things and change) to change things…

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:18 am

      Maybe the next generation will be more clear eyed. Hope there’s something left for them after this guy gives everything away.

  5. GonadTheRuffian

    January 8, 2021 at 7:39 pm

    If this poll is correct and you add up the percentage of the decided votes; 48% are for Left Wing parties and 35 % are for the two conservative parties. If this is truly the case in Alberta; the most conservative province in Canada; forget about Separation. Plan for Shariah Law, poverty, and violence; the result of our young peoples indoctrination in the Public Propaganda Mills; and the importation of millions of foreigners looking for free stuff.
    But later; as you huddle in some crowded human warehouse or under a bridge somewhere; keep chanting the Leftist /Globalist mantra “Diversity is our strength”. If you vote for it, you will get it!

  6. H Jenson

    January 8, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    The sample size for this poll was a little to small to be accurate. What is clear though is Kenney will be sent back to Ontario where he belongs.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:17 am

      Main Street not so good at getting it right. Look at its history. This looks right though.

      • Joe_Calgary

        January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

        Clara McNee or should we call you Clare Troll? How much do you get paid for sowing manure on these sites?

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:46 pm

        Clara . . . the NDP has a history of not getting anything right !
        They are a party of inbred socialists . . . left overs from the 20th Century.
        One thing about ALL Socialists . . . they know the way to Venezuela.

        Look around the world Clara . . . ALL the leftist countries are FAILING . . .

        Did you miss the obvious when Trump built the Best US Economy in 50 years and the Lowest Minority Unempoyment EVER . . . and he did it in less than 3 years . . . before the ChiCommies released the Obama/Fauci/CCP Wuhan Virus on the world.

        How did he do it? Cutting Regulations, Business & Personal Taxes, creating 1/2 Million New Manufacturing Jobs . . . and putting Tariffs on the thieving CCP who have been stealing Intellectual Property, Patents & Technology for decades.

  7. warrenzoell

    January 8, 2021 at 6:54 pm

    I don’t know which ones are bigger morons. Those who continue to support the UCP. Or the ones who decide to go back to supporting the NDP. What the hell is wrong with you? Is your memory that short?
    There are better choices you know.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:15 am

      And WildRose is different than UCP how? NDP only party that ever did anything for ‘all’ Albertans not just the Con base. Maybe the next generation will realize.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 8:17 am

        Are you kidding?

        Please name one piece of legislation or policy implemented by the Notley NDP that benefited more than just her cronies.

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 10:54 am

        She did one good thing for AISH recipients. She gave them a $100 a month increase. Plus payments were to match AISH payments to the rate of inflation. As the rate of inflation increases or decreases, AISH payments were to be matched accordingly on a yearly basis.
        Kenney of course shut this down as soon as the UCP came into power. Now AISH recipients receive pretty much what they were getting in 2012 when Redford gave a much needed $400 a month increase. Of course that was 9 years ago.

        But as for the rest as to what the NDP did was a complete disaster. Especially that fraudulent carbon tax based on a very very big lie.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 3:20 pm

        Only to take it back by increasing the cost of living when she forced the carbon tax on everything, incl. milk, bread, fruit & vegetables, rent, transportation, etc…..

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 6:12 pm

        Actually it was Kenney who shut the AISH thing down. but I see your point.
        I do suspect that even she did this for AISH recipients, she knew she was going to loose, and that Kenney would get rid of it.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 12:37 pm

        You are a typical Soviet Canuck; addicted to “free stuff” and comforting lies. Where is your “free stuff” gonna come from when Knothead continues to shut down oil pipelines and other sources of income? Let me answer that question. She will borrow money like there is no tomorrow, just like the Leftist tyrant Turdeau is doing until the province (and nation) is bankrupt. “Free stuff” for everyone; especially if you are a foreigner (and especially, especially, if your name is Mohammad)!
        The next generation is gonna realize alright, when they find themselves living as the hungry, cold, Third-World peasants of Soviet Canuckistan. A hated, poverty stricken minority in their own country.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:30 pm

        NDP never did anything for anybody . . . they are the party of University Professors and Big Enviro . . . a record of disaster wherever they lead.

        Alberta had a taste for 4 years . . . and went downhill . . .
        The NDP have destroyed BC twice . . . and are now doing it again.
        NDP kept Saskatchewan depressed for 70 years . . . they wrecked Manitoba in the 70s & 80s . . . and of course ran Rae Days in Ontario . . . another low point.

        Albertans missed the Boat when they failed to Elect Wild Rose years ago . . . and got Nutley.

        Read the NDP Constitution on line . . . it reads like Karl Marx !

  8. Victoria Demolition

    January 8, 2021 at 6:38 pm

    I wonder if the NDP will introduce the recall legislation? I guess time will tell.

  9. godot

    January 8, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    One thing is certain, Kenney will not be enacting Recall Legislation!

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:16 am

      Alberta will be lucky if there is anything they recognize after Kenney is through. Remember Harper saying Canadians would not recognize Canada when he was through? Luckily there were enough Canadians with the intellect to send him packing.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 4:00 pm

        You have the audacity to criticize Harper when the present PM, Mr. Mohammad Castro, AKA, The Village Idiot is borrowing and squandering money like the virtue-signaling, Left-Wing, snow board instructor he is. Most of this money goes to corrupt foreign nations and his beloved Islamic Death Cult. Much of this money is stolen from Alberta through the draconian transfer payments. At the same time him and his Librano Gang shut down Alberta pipelines and ban tankers on the west coast. When you Looney Leftists are done with Canada it will be an Islamic hell-hole that will be truly unrecognizable.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:34 pm

        Harper was the best PM in 50 years . . . and the FACTS support that !
        But the Eastern Elites, the FakeStream Media hated him as well as the feckless UNIFOR.

        Now we have our Village Idiot from Keybec running the country off a cliff . . . doubling the debt in 5 years . . . a 3 time Ethics challenged criminal . . .

        Remember when . . . .
        World’s Richest Middle Class . . . NY Times
        World’s Best Reputation . . . Reputation Institute
        Best Wage Growth in G7 Nations . . . 2007-2012
        Best Oilfield Salaries in the World . . .
        Best Oilfield Enviro Regs in the World . . . Harvard Bus School
        Best Country to do Business . . . . Forbes
        World’s Best Debt to GDP Ratio , . . OECD

        ALL of that is in the REAR VIEW Mirror today Canada . . .

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News

MLA Barnes slams proposal for Alberta chopper changes

The Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Report has 11 recommendations including having just one provincial air rescue operation, Shock Trauma Air Rescue Service (STARS).

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Independent Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes is sounding warning bells to the UCP after it received recommendations to centralize air rescue operations under STARS.

The Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Report has 11 recommendations, including having just one provincial air rescue operation, Shock Trauma Air Rescue Service (STARS).

The proposal said STARS would work with other helicopter emergency medical providers to ensure consistent, safe coverage across Alberta. Provincial funding for STARS would rise to 50% of their operating budget from the current 23%.

“This delayed report’s recommendations are not only bad news for prompt, full coverage air ambulance services for hundreds of thousands of southern Albertans, it is also bad policy for all Albertans,” Barnes, the MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat, told the Western Standard.

“Southern Alberta’s emergency air helicopter ambulance (HALO based in Medicine Hat) can not only provide faster service with fewer stops, but it also operates much more efficiently and allows for operating reliability for the entire province with a second flight Operations Certificate.  

“It is essential all Albertans be treated equitably with government-funded life-saving air ambulance health services, and the UCP government’s refusal to fund southern Albertan’s air ambulance (HALO) the same as STARS must change immediately.”

Currently, Alberta Health Services provides about $8.4 million per year to helicopter emergency medical services funding. Approximately 1,450 helicopter flights take place each year; 7,300 are flown using fixed-wing aircraft.

The government said it will examine the report over the coming months.

The recommendations also include:

  • Legislation: A new air ambulance regulation would establish consistent deployment, operational, clinical and aviation standards.
  • Dispatch integration: The dispatch of STARS would be integrated with other emergency medical services to allow for the best use of all services to achieve the most efficient response.

The report can be read here.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

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Pastor Coates gets GraceLife Church back on Canada Day

The church has been barricaded since early April after a dawn raid by Alberta Health Services and the RCMP.

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It will be a extra-special Canada Day for Pastor James Coates who will get his GraceLife Church back when the Alberta government cuts off the padlocks on his church.

The government confirmed in an e-mail to CityNews Edmonton its restrictions will be dropped July 1, the same day Alberta is dropping all its COVID-19 restrictions.

The church has been barricaded more than two months since an early April dawn raid by Alberta Health Services and the RCMP.

Coates was jailed for more than a month in mid-February because he was defying provincial COVID-19 lockdown orders by holding services at a capacity not authorized by the government.

At two bail hearings, Coates said he refused to abide by conditions that he stop preaching.

After being released from jail, the church continued to see large services, leading to AHS — with the help of the RCMP — raiding the facility and building three fences around it.

While large protests erupted at the walled-off church Coates continued with his services at a secret location, and then posted them on YouTube.

They have since been holding services at undisclosed locations.

Alberta Health Minister Tyler Shandro personally approved the AHS-RCMP raid and barricading of the Grace Life Church, according to a UCP MLA that spoke to the Western Standard on condition of anonymity. Shandro has denied the story.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

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China, Russia, Iran call for UN investigation into Canada’s treatment of indigenous peoples

Chinese officials cited the discovery last month of what are believed to be the unmarked graves of 215 children on the grounds of a former residential school in Kamloops.

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A coalition of countries – including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – is demanding the UN probe Canada’s handling of it’s indigenous peoples.

“We are deeply concerned about the serious human rights violations against the indigenous people in Canada. Historically, Canada robbed the indigenous people of the land, killed them and eradicated their culture,” said Jiang Duan, a senior official at China’s mission to the UN in Geneva.

“We call for a thorough and impartial investigation into all cases where crimes were committed against indigenous people, especially the children.”

CBC report Jiang cited the discovery last month of what are believed to be the unmarked graves of 215 children on the grounds of a former residential school in Kamloops.

Jiang said the probe demand was on behalf of China, Russia, Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is much better than China at dealing with historical injustices.

“The journey of reconciliation is a long one, but it is a journey we are on. China is not recognizing even that there is a problem. That is a pretty fundamental difference,” Trudeau told reporters.

“In Canada, we had a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Where is China’s truth and reconciliation commission? Where is their truth? Where is the openness that Canada has always shown and the responsibility that Canada has taken for the terrible mistakes of the past, and indeed, many of which continue into the present?”

Trudeau pointed out China’s “systemic abuse and human rights violations against the Uyghurs.”

He added Canada’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva Leslie E. Norton delivered a statement on behalf of 44 countries calling for China to allow international observers “immediate, meaningful and unfettered access” to Xinjiang, where the Uyghur minority are based.

“We are gravely concerned about the human rights situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,” said Norton.

“Credible reports indicate that over a million people have been arbitrarily detained in Xinjiang and there is widespread surveillance disproportionately targeting Uyghurs and members of other minorities and restrictions on fundamental freedoms and Uyghur culture.”

His statement was on behalf of countries including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

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