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EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows UCP collapse as NDP & Wildrose surge

The Mainstreet poll puts UCP support lower than Jim Prentice’s PCs in 2015.

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A new poll commissioned exclusively by the Western Standard shows Jason Kenney’s UCP would face decimation if an election was held today with the NDP’s Rachel Notley returned as premier, and a strong possibility of the new Wildrose Independence Party breaking into the legislature.

The Mainstreet Research poll was conducted January 6-7 and shows 41 per cent of Albertans would vote NDP, and only 26 per cent would cast a ballot for the UCP. The Wildrose Independence Party would take 9 per cent of the vote.

The Alberta Party was supported by 3 per cent, the Liberals and Greens 2 per cent each, and another 2 per cent for other parties. Another 16 per cent were undecided.

Alberta voter intention poll with undecideds. Western Standard New Media Corp. all rights reserved.

“This is horrific news for the governing UCP and for Premier Jason Kenney,” said Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi. “It’s absolutely terrible.”

At 26 per cent, the UCP are polling lower than the 28 per cent received by the Progressive Conservatives under Jim Prentice in 2015.

Maggi noted it was a whopping 28 point drop in popularity for the UCP, leaving them 17 per cent behind Notley’s NDP.

He said the NDP have an unprecedented 50 point lead in Edmonton and 15 per cent lead in the former Tory fortress of Calgary. The UCP has also dropped 30 points in rural Alberta.

And the NDP currently leads in support among men, something Maggi said was unheard of before.

“Right now we are looking at a sweep similar to the 2015 election which brought the NDP to power,” Maggi said, predicting Notley’s party would likely regain seats in Lethbridge on their way to a majority government.

The drop in rural support opens the door for the Wildrose Independence Party, currently polling at nine per cent. Maggi said the WIP could start to win seats right now with its concentrated support in rural areas.

He said WIP would likely see its support continue to climb if it gets a high profile leader.

While Wildrose polled a distant third in Calgary and Edmonton, its strength was clearly in rural Alberta at 13 per cent support.

The new party was constituted from a merger of the Freedom Conservative party and Wexit Alberta last year, opting to reclaim the Wildrose mantle, which Maggi says is still a “very, very strong brand” in the province, and has already endured its near extinction after mass floor crossings in December 2014.

Based on how respondents voted in the 2019 election, the party appears to have consolidated support from the former FCP and smaller right-leaning parties and pulled significant support from both the UCP and Alberta Party.

“There is a residual dislike for Notley in the province, and when you have an unpopular leader versus an unpopular leader, people will look to a third party,” Maggi said.

Despite its attempts, the Alberta Party appears to have dropped back into the range of the largely moribund Liberal Party at 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.

According to Maggi, the Alberta Party is in trouble because they don’t have a leader in place, nor a professional team behind them. Maggi added the centrist vote is largely parked between the NDP and UCP.

“For another centrist party to enter the space, and take away oxygen, is almost impossible,” he said.

But Maggi said it’s way too early to count the UCP out with the next election not scheduled to occur until 2023.

“There is a way out. A week is an eternity in politics – two years is forever,” he said, adding the NDP was hardly on the map before the 2015 election while the Tories were widely expected to sweep.

Removing the undecided vote, the NDP would get 48 per cent, the UCP 31 per cent, Wildrose gets 10 per cent, Alberta Party four per cent, Liberals three per cent, Green two percent and others two per cent.

The poll of 1,003 adults has a margin of error of +/- 3.09 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence level.

This poll is Part One of a series of Mainstreet polls commissioned by the Western Standard. The full details and methodology of the poll can be found here.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard and the Vice-President: News Division of Western Standard New Media Corp. He has served as the City Editor of the Calgary Sun and has covered Alberta news for nearly 40 years. dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Joe_Calgary

    January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    Kenny brought the Ottawa “conservative” approach which was to be liberal lite. He wound up looking no different from the liberals or the ND’s, exactly the mistake Prentice and Redford made. Wildrose is the only party that will fight for Albertans and represent their values of independence.

  2. Warren Leigh

    January 9, 2021 at 11:22 am

    One big and obvious way for Kenney to regain his support would be to END THE LOCKDOWNS!! Let’s get everybody vaccinated who needs it, start purchasing a good supply of therapeutic medicines, all while getting Alberta back up and running and open for business, education, worship and everything else. He should also fire Hinshaw and at least suspend if not fire the snowbirds. Let’s put this pandemic crap behind us, stick it to commie Ottawa, and get some pipelines built and mining operations in place! Remember the good old days when that used to be the big topic of discussion? It’s way past time, though, to move beyond talk to action.

  3. UnLiberal

    January 9, 2021 at 9:04 am

    I no longer have confidence in any political party! If I were to vote, it would be cast for the party that I distrusted the least!

  4. Joan

    January 8, 2021 at 11:01 pm

    NEVER, as long as I draw breath, will I ever vote for NDP…they almost destroyed this province, and they spend money like water. (I lived under their dictatorship and disaster, too long, in BC as well. )We have enough debt from them before, we don’t need to take them on again and totally destroy whats left. Plus they HATE oil and thats a lot of what we are. I would consider Wildrose Independent Party, but we aren’t in a position to separate at this point. Not much choice left, is there. Fortunately we aren’t coming up to an election, so what the polls say today, hopefully won’t happen. I wish the old Wildrose party was still around because they would definitely get my support. All I can do is hope for a miracle and something happens (maybe some people will learn some things and change) to change things…

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:18 am

      Maybe the next generation will be more clear eyed. Hope there’s something left for them after this guy gives everything away.

  5. GonadTheRuffian

    January 8, 2021 at 7:39 pm

    If this poll is correct and you add up the percentage of the decided votes; 48% are for Left Wing parties and 35 % are for the two conservative parties. If this is truly the case in Alberta; the most conservative province in Canada; forget about Separation. Plan for Shariah Law, poverty, and violence; the result of our young peoples indoctrination in the Public Propaganda Mills; and the importation of millions of foreigners looking for free stuff.
    But later; as you huddle in some crowded human warehouse or under a bridge somewhere; keep chanting the Leftist /Globalist mantra “Diversity is our strength”. If you vote for it, you will get it!

  6. H Jenson

    January 8, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    The sample size for this poll was a little to small to be accurate. What is clear though is Kenney will be sent back to Ontario where he belongs.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:17 am

      Main Street not so good at getting it right. Look at its history. This looks right though.

      • Joe_Calgary

        January 9, 2021 at 1:41 pm

        Clara McNee or should we call you Clare Troll? How much do you get paid for sowing manure on these sites?

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:46 pm

        Clara . . . the NDP has a history of not getting anything right !
        They are a party of inbred socialists . . . left overs from the 20th Century.
        One thing about ALL Socialists . . . they know the way to Venezuela.

        Look around the world Clara . . . ALL the leftist countries are FAILING . . .

        Did you miss the obvious when Trump built the Best US Economy in 50 years and the Lowest Minority Unempoyment EVER . . . and he did it in less than 3 years . . . before the ChiCommies released the Obama/Fauci/CCP Wuhan Virus on the world.

        How did he do it? Cutting Regulations, Business & Personal Taxes, creating 1/2 Million New Manufacturing Jobs . . . and putting Tariffs on the thieving CCP who have been stealing Intellectual Property, Patents & Technology for decades.

  7. warrenzoell

    January 8, 2021 at 6:54 pm

    I don’t know which ones are bigger morons. Those who continue to support the UCP. Or the ones who decide to go back to supporting the NDP. What the hell is wrong with you? Is your memory that short?
    There are better choices you know.

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:15 am

      And WildRose is different than UCP how? NDP only party that ever did anything for ‘all’ Albertans not just the Con base. Maybe the next generation will realize.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 8:17 am

        Are you kidding?

        Please name one piece of legislation or policy implemented by the Notley NDP that benefited more than just her cronies.

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 10:54 am

        She did one good thing for AISH recipients. She gave them a $100 a month increase. Plus payments were to match AISH payments to the rate of inflation. As the rate of inflation increases or decreases, AISH payments were to be matched accordingly on a yearly basis.
        Kenney of course shut this down as soon as the UCP came into power. Now AISH recipients receive pretty much what they were getting in 2012 when Redford gave a much needed $400 a month increase. Of course that was 9 years ago.

        But as for the rest as to what the NDP did was a complete disaster. Especially that fraudulent carbon tax based on a very very big lie.

      • John

        January 9, 2021 at 3:20 pm

        Only to take it back by increasing the cost of living when she forced the carbon tax on everything, incl. milk, bread, fruit & vegetables, rent, transportation, etc…..

      • warrenzoell

        January 9, 2021 at 6:12 pm

        Actually it was Kenney who shut the AISH thing down. but I see your point.
        I do suspect that even she did this for AISH recipients, she knew she was going to loose, and that Kenney would get rid of it.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 12:37 pm

        You are a typical Soviet Canuck; addicted to “free stuff” and comforting lies. Where is your “free stuff” gonna come from when Knothead continues to shut down oil pipelines and other sources of income? Let me answer that question. She will borrow money like there is no tomorrow, just like the Leftist tyrant Turdeau is doing until the province (and nation) is bankrupt. “Free stuff” for everyone; especially if you are a foreigner (and especially, especially, if your name is Mohammad)!
        The next generation is gonna realize alright, when they find themselves living as the hungry, cold, Third-World peasants of Soviet Canuckistan. A hated, poverty stricken minority in their own country.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:30 pm

        NDP never did anything for anybody . . . they are the party of University Professors and Big Enviro . . . a record of disaster wherever they lead.

        Alberta had a taste for 4 years . . . and went downhill . . .
        The NDP have destroyed BC twice . . . and are now doing it again.
        NDP kept Saskatchewan depressed for 70 years . . . they wrecked Manitoba in the 70s & 80s . . . and of course ran Rae Days in Ontario . . . another low point.

        Albertans missed the Boat when they failed to Elect Wild Rose years ago . . . and got Nutley.

        Read the NDP Constitution on line . . . it reads like Karl Marx !

  8. Victoria Demolition

    January 8, 2021 at 6:38 pm

    I wonder if the NDP will introduce the recall legislation? I guess time will tell.

  9. godot

    January 8, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    One thing is certain, Kenney will not be enacting Recall Legislation!

    • Clara McNee

      January 9, 2021 at 5:16 am

      Alberta will be lucky if there is anything they recognize after Kenney is through. Remember Harper saying Canadians would not recognize Canada when he was through? Luckily there were enough Canadians with the intellect to send him packing.

      • GonadTheRuffian

        January 9, 2021 at 4:00 pm

        You have the audacity to criticize Harper when the present PM, Mr. Mohammad Castro, AKA, The Village Idiot is borrowing and squandering money like the virtue-signaling, Left-Wing, snow board instructor he is. Most of this money goes to corrupt foreign nations and his beloved Islamic Death Cult. Much of this money is stolen from Alberta through the draconian transfer payments. At the same time him and his Librano Gang shut down Alberta pipelines and ban tankers on the west coast. When you Looney Leftists are done with Canada it will be an Islamic hell-hole that will be truly unrecognizable.

      • Charles Martell III

        January 9, 2021 at 3:34 pm

        Harper was the best PM in 50 years . . . and the FACTS support that !
        But the Eastern Elites, the FakeStream Media hated him as well as the feckless UNIFOR.

        Now we have our Village Idiot from Keybec running the country off a cliff . . . doubling the debt in 5 years . . . a 3 time Ethics challenged criminal . . .

        Remember when . . . .
        World’s Richest Middle Class . . . NY Times
        World’s Best Reputation . . . Reputation Institute
        Best Wage Growth in G7 Nations . . . 2007-2012
        Best Oilfield Salaries in the World . . .
        Best Oilfield Enviro Regs in the World . . . Harvard Bus School
        Best Country to do Business . . . . Forbes
        World’s Best Debt to GDP Ratio , . . OECD

        ALL of that is in the REAR VIEW Mirror today Canada . . .

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Liberal Internet censorship plans no laughing matter

Provisions of the bill “are designed to chill speech” and would impose a “censorship regime” on Canadian internet users, said the Society.

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Jokes will be banned on the Internet if the Liberals get their way, says the Canadian chapter of the Internet Society.

Blacklock’s Reporter says the group has petitioned Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault’s department to drop his censorship bill.

“The scheme as a whole is aimed at the suppression of speech and cannot be justified in a free and democratic society,” said the Society whose members include a former federal judge.

“This is completely wrong,” the society wrote in a submission to the Department of Canadian Heritage.

Cabinet said if re-elected it would introduce Bill C-36 An Act To Amend The Criminal Code that lapsed in the last Parliament.

Provisions of the bill “are designed to chill speech” and would impose a “censorship regime” on Canadian internet users, said the society.

“The censorship regime is designed to favour censorship over free speech,” it said.

Parliament in 1970 banned hate speech under the Criminal Code, but Bill C-36 would expand the ban to legal content “likely to foment detestation or vilification of an individual or group” under threat of $70,000 fines or house arrest.

The Department of Justice June 23 said the measures “would apply to public communications by individual users on the Internet, including on social media, on personal websites and in mass e-mails,” blog posts, online news sites, “operators of websites that primarily publish their own content” and user-comment sections.

“The proposed legislative scheme is contrary to the guarantees of free speech enshrined in the Canadian Charter Of Rights And Freedoms as it applies to lawful speech,” wrote the Internet Society.

“The Charter protects not only the expressive rights of Canadians but the right of Canadians to access the expression of others.”

Society board members include Konrad von Finckenstein, a former federal judge and ex-chair of the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission, former CRTC commissioner Tim Denton, three corporate lawyers, a former treasurer of the Canadian Media guild and ex-director of the Canadian Internet Registration Authority.

The Society called Bill C-36 a “wholly unprecedented” measure.

“A certain humility is necessary when Canada attempts to take on the role of policing all harmful speech, everywhere, in the name of protecting the sensibilities of Canadians,” it wrote.

“The scheme is unworthy of consideration by Parliament. Its implementation would diminish the rights of Canadians while failing in its purpose of protecting Canadians from internet harms. The proposal should be withdrawn.”

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Allison: Official bilingualism creates a regional power imbalance

Westerners must join the elite minority of bilinguals by learning a second language or be left behind when it comes to rising the ranks of Canada’s federal institutions.

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Bilinguals make up only 18% of our population, yet they dominate our federal institutions.

The reason for this is no secret. Canada’s official bilingualism, legally enshrined in the Official Languages Act (1969), gives a distinct advantage to one class of Canadians; bilinguals, over all others. The Act requires that federal institutions provide services in both French and English. The result is that 40% of federal public service jobs are “designated bilingual.” This means that some 300,000 jobs which make up our federal bureaucracies are available only to 18% of Canadians and closed to the other 82%

What does this mean for regional representation in our federal institutions? It means overrepresentation from Quebec and underrepresentation from the West. About 45% of Quebecers are bilingual whereas only 7% of those in the prairie provinces are bilingual. Thus, the pool of qualified candidates for federal public service jobs is going to be overwhelmingly filled with Quebecers while having scarcely any Westerners. As spokesman for Canadians for Language Fairness, Gordon Miller, writes: “The Official Languages Act has allowed this group [the “Laurentian elite”] to dominate the federal government bureaucracy and further entrench the dominance of the Eastern provinces in federal affairs.”

The Laurentian elite does dominate the federal public service. A total of 67% of the federal public service is made up of Quebecers and Ontarians and only 11% are from the prairie provinces. Of course, official bilingualism is not the only cause that has explanatory power in the case of this discrepancy. The federal capital being located on the border between the two most populous provinces also plays a significant role in determining the regional makeup of the federal public service (a separate and distinct advantage that the Laurentians have over Westerners in controlling federal institutions). In fact, 42% of federal public service employees live in the National Capital Region in Ottawa-Gatineau.

But, when it comes to those who rise the ranks in Canada’s federal bureaucracy, official bilingualism provides an explanation for its overwhelmingly Quebecer makeup. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada Richard Wagner, the Chief Justice of the Federal Court of Appeal Marc Noël, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem, Government Film Commissioner and Chairperson for the National Film Board of Canada Claude Joli-Coeur, the Director and CEO of the Canada Council of the Arts Simon Brault, the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada Stéphane Perrault, and the Director of CSIS David Vigneault are all Quebecers. The board of directors for the CBC, is also made up of 33% Quebecers with only one member hailing from the prairie provinces — Jennifer Moore Rattray from Manitoba. As Washington Post columnist, J.J. McCullough, suggests: “It is really hard to argue that by some massive coincidence the most qualified people for all of these jobs just happen to be Quebecers.”

Indeed, it is no coincidence. Since all federal institutions must provide services in both French and English, it is likely to have a bilingual in charge of these federal bureaucracies in order to ensure that these institutions run smoothly. As a result, Quebecers with their disproportionate number of bilinguals, have come to dominate the highest ranks of these bureaucracies.

Official bilingualism lays the groundwork for these regional disparities in Canada’s federal bureaucracies. Quebecers are overwhelmingly more likely to be bilingual than Westerners. As such, Westerners must join the elite minority of bilinguals by learning a second language or be left behind when it comes to rising the ranks of Canada’s federal institutions.

Andrew Allison is a PhD philosophy student at the University of Calgary
andrew.allison@ucalgary.ca

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Sask removes QR codes from vaccine passports

Residents will be able to download their proof of vaccination record on Saturday, but the QR code will not be included.

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Saskatchewan is temporarily removing QR codes from its vaccine passports after privacy breaches were found.

The government said the vaccination records of up to 19 residents have the potential to display another person’s QR code.

The province said one person’s private information has been “erroneously captured.”

That person has been notified, as has the Office of the Information and Privacy Officer of Saskatchewan.

Residents will be able to download their proof of vaccination record on Saturday, but the QR code will not be included.

“Citizens who have already printed/downloaded/captured the QR code on their COVID-19 vaccination record between September 19-24, are asked to destroy/delete any records with their COVID-19 QR code as the code will be made invalid,” the government said in a release.

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