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POLL: 45-48% of Albertans back independence
A large poll conducted exclusively for the Western Standard finds that between 45% and 48% of Albertans would vote for independence.
- Independence support has grown to just shy of a majority
- A majority of UCP and rural voters back independence
In an exclusive poll conducted by Northwest Research for the Western Standard, 45 per cent of decided Albertans surveyed said that they would defiantly vote yes or were leaning yes if there was a referendum on Alberta’s independence, while 55 per cent said that they would definitely vote no or were leaning no.
If undecided voters are factored in, 41 per cent said that they would back independence, 50 per cent were opposed, and 9 per cent were not sure.
The poll surveyed 1,100 people in Alberta, was weighted for regional balance, age, and gender, and contains a margin of error of 3.02 per cent.
Previous polls conducted on independence before the last federal election normally pegged support in the mid-thirties to low-forties. Since the federal election, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has commissioned a “Fair Deal Panel”, whose report has been delayed with the support of NDP leader Rachel Notley.
Those surveyed were first asked if they agreed that “If the federal government is unwilling to negotiate with Alberta on a new constitutional arrangement, Alberta should hold a referendum on independence.” In that scenario, 48 per cent of decided respondents said that they would vote yes, and 52 per cent said that they would vote no, nearly a statistical tie.
Those surveyed were also asked “If a referendum on independence were to be held, which way would you vote?” In this scenario, 45 per cent of decided voters said that they would definitely or were leaning to vote yes, and 55 per cent said that they would definitely or were leaning to vote no.
Support for a referendum on independence if the province’s demands were rejected was highest outside of Alberta’s two biggest cities, at 61 per cent in support and 39 per cent opposed, while it was lowest in Edmonton at 33 per cent backing sovereignty and 67 per cent backing the federalists. Voters were most evenly split in Calgary at 44 per cent in favour, and 56 per cent opposed.
Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams said the polling numbers may reflect Albertans displeasure with pandemic relief offered by the feds to the energy industry and farmers.
“Earlier polls on support for independence reflected a decrease in support for independence attributed to recognition of Alberta’s interdependence with the rest of the country and the importance of federal support in the face of unprecedented economic peril,” Williams told the Western Standard.
“This poll raises questions about that interpretation. It is possible that respondents were influenced by the wording of the question; asking about support if the federal government would not negotiate.”
The poll asked respondents two questions on independence, including one that does not reference any negotiations with the federal government
“Another factor could be frustration with pandemic fall out, and particularly the federal government’s slow/inadequate response to challenges faced by oil/gas and agriculture,” Williams continued. “It will be very interesting to see whether future polls reinforce this picture. Pointed questions could shed light on the underlying trends that explain it.”
Older voters were more likely to back a referendum on independence, with 43 per cent support of those under age 35, 46 per cent for those between ages 35 and 54, and 56 per cent of those over 55.
There was a modest gender gap as well, with men breaking 52 per cent to 48 per cent in support of a referendum on independence, while women broke 43 per cent to 57 per cent.
While support for independence was strongest if Alberta first sent its “fair deal” demands to Ottawa, support for going straight to an independence referendum was still relatively strong at 45 per cent of decided respondents.
Support for going straight to an independence vote without presenting any demands to Ottawa was highest again outside of the two biggest cities at 57 per cent, and 43 per cent opposed. In Calgary, there were 42 per cent in support and 58 per cent opposed, and in Edmonton 33 per cent in support, and 67 opposed.
The independence question presents a potential third-rail for Alberta’s political landscape, with 82 per cent of Wildrose Independence Party voters in support, 52 per cent of UCP voters, 41 per cent of undecided voters, and just 11 per cent of NDP voters.
Both major parties and their leaders have pledged themselves as federalists, however the UCP used significant anti-Trudeau language until the last federal election.
On April 27th, the relatively small Freedom Conservative Party and Wexit Alberta announced that their members would vote on a merger to form the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta.
News
EXCLUSIVE: Country star running for UCP president to force Kenney leadership vote
Sources tell the Western Standard that George Canyon will run for the presidency of the party in order to trigger an earlier leadership review.
Alberta country star George Canyon is set to announce he’s running for the presidency of the United Conservative Party, multiple sources tell the Western Standard.
But Canyon is not seeking a typical mandate for a party president, however, but will be running on a platform of holding an early leadership review of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
Several sources in the party told the Western Standard Canyon will make the announcement this week.
The UCP will hold its annual general meeting November 19-21 at the Grey Eagle Resort, where members present will elect a new board of directors for the party.
Candidates running on an explicit mandate of triggering a leadership review is rare in Canadian politics.
Canyon placed second in the 2019 federal election under the Conservative banner in his native Nova Scotia, but lives in Alberta.
The country music star regularly sings the national anthem at Calgary Flames games at the Saddledome.
Canyon’s entry into the political fray comes as Kenney’s leadership has been under siege since he imposed a fourth round of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns last week, including a vaccine passport, something he vowed never to do.
A UCP Caucus meeting is set for Wednesday and Kenney’s leadership is expected to be the main point of discussion.
Dozens of grassroots UCP constituency associations have joined forces to call for an early leadership review of Kenney. The party currently has one scheduled in late 2022, only six months before the next provincial election.
UCP VP of policy Joel Mullan wrote an open letter in the Western Standard Tuesday that called for Kenney to go immediately.
“My responsibility is to look at the reality —not wish it away — and take the necessary steps to protect the health care system,” Kenney said.
“Let’s deal with those things at the right time, after this crisis.”
He said any move to hold a leadership race now would be “grossly irresponsible.”
Kenney was asked if the internal turmoil in the UCP was what led to the resignation of Health Minister Tyler Shandro.
“I am focused on getting through the fourth wave of COVID, not politics,” Kenney said.
“We have to protect the health care system to prevent needless deaths — we will not allow politics to distract us.”
Kenney may not go so easily however.
One UCP MLA says Alberta Premier Jason Kenney would rather “blow up” the government than admit he was wrong about COVID-19 and resign.
The MLA, who spoke to the Western Standard on the condition of anonymity, made the comment prior to thee Tuesday afternoon Kenney cabinet shuffle.
“This is a desperate bid by Kenney to save his leadership,” the MLA said of Shandro’s removal.
“Most of us agree Shandro is incompetent and must go, but he was acting under orders directly from Kenney.
“It looks pathetic and is only designed to stave off a vote of no-confidence from the caucus tomorrow,” the MLA said.
“Rather than go gracefully, [Kenney] would rather blow the whole thing up than step down gracefully.”
Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694
News
Kenney says leadership review now would be ‘grossly irresponsible’
When asked at a Tuesday press conference by the Toronto Star about the Mullan letter, Kenney responded there has been opposition to his health care policy “since Day 1.”
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney last night rejected any calls for an immediate leadership review of him as “grossly irresponsible.”
Kenney has been under withering attacks for his handling of the COVID-19 crisis in Alberta, which led to the “resignation” Tuesday of Health Minister Tyler Shandro.
A UCP caucus meeting is set for Wednesday and Kenney’s leadership is expected to be the main point of discussion.
Dozens of grassroots UCP constituency associations have joined forces to call for an early leadership review of Kenney. The party currently has one scheduled in late 2022, only six months before the next provincial election.
UCP VP of policy Joel Mullan wrote an open letter in the Western Standard Tuesday called for Kenney to go immediately.
When asked at a Tuesday press conference by the Toronto Star about the Mullan letter, Kenney responded there has been opposition to his health care policy “since Day 1.”
“My responsibility is to look at the reality — not wish it away — and take the necessary steps to protect the health care system,” Kenney said.
“Let’s deal with those things at the right time, after this crisis.”
Kenney was asked if the internal turmoil within the UCP was what led to the resignation of Shandro.
“I am focused on getting through the fourth wave of COVID, not politics,” Kenney said.
“We have to protect the health care system to prevent needless deaths — we will not allow politics to distract us.”
Kenney said he knew when he brought in the fourth wave of COVID-19 lockdowns last week and flip-flopped on his promise not to bring in vaccine passports there would be internal grumblings.
He said the COVID-19 cabinet committee has had 12 hours of “respectful” meeting time with the full UCP caucus.
Kenney pointed out the People’s Party of Canada, which ran on an anti-vaccination platform, took 8% of the vote in Alberta in the federal election.
“Let me be blunt, those people likely voted for me in the last provincial election,” Kenney said.
Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694
News
Kenney said shuffle was ‘time for a fresh start’
Dr. Deena Hinshaw said 29 Albertans died in the last 24 hours from COVID-19, including people who had been doubled-vaxxed, but included many people who hadn’t received any vaccinations at all.
Tyler Shandro wasn’t fired as health minister, he resigned, says Premier Jason Kenney.
Answering questions after Tuesday’s cabinet shuffle, Kenney said he accepted the resignation from Shandro from the health portfolio.
“Tyler’s dedication to the job has never been questioned. He brought his heart to the job,” Kenney said.
“It’s time for a fresh start.”
Kenney denied the shuffle was done to appease critics in the UCP caucus clamouring for action.
“We are focused on getting through the fourth wave of COVID-19, not politics,” said Kenney.
Kenney promoted Labour Minister Jason Copping to health and put Shandro in his old portfolio in labour.
Kenney said bringing in vaccine passports has had a dramatic effect on the number of people getting vaccinated.
A total of 23,000 people were vaccinated on Monday with 78,000 jabs being given out in the last few days.
A total of 81.4% of people have received at least one vaccine with 72.8% having two jabs.
Since they were made available on Sunday, more than two million Albertans printed out their vaccination passports, Kenney said.
He said Alberta Health Services has expanded the number of ICU beds in the province to 337.
Copping said he was honoured to be named health minister in this “pivotal time.”
He said he has three goals: to increase hospital capacities permanently, educate the unvaccinated on why they should get jabs and to prepare the hospital system for any future waves of COVID.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw said 29 Albertans had died in the last 24 hours from COVID-19, including people who had been doubled-vaxxed, but included many people who hadn’t received any vaccinations at all.
She said the province had identified 1,500 new cases in the last day from 13,600 tests for an 11.1% positivity rate.
There are 996 people in hospital as of September 21 with COVID, and 222 in ICU.
Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694
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